Okay let’s talk about the quarterbacks in Week 13, with some tough decisions to make in some of the league’s most interesting games.
C.J. Stroud will face the Denver Broncos, with both teams at 6-5 and fighting for a playoff berth in the AFC. That’s a crucial game for both teams, and one with two very interesting quarterback matchups.
We’ll get into why I think Tua Tagovailoa is potentially QB1 in fantasy this weekend, as well as suggestions for Sam Howell on the opposite side, and the all-important matchup between Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy in the clash of the titans in the NFC.
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Jared Goff – Start (Projection 17.1 Points)
Jared Goff seems like more of a controversial start this week than he was just a few short weeks ago, but that nightmare performance against Chicago will do that to your confidence in the player.
Goff’s numbers then look okay on paper in the Thanksgiving day matchup against Green Bay, but he was the far inferior quarterback and struggled to take care of the football, fumbling three times in the devastating loss.
That’s six turnovers in two games, and could easily be enough to have fantasy owners questioning whether to start or sit Jared Goff in Week 13. I’m remaining confident in his ability to put up numbers, even against the New Orleans Saints defense.
The Saints had two takeaways against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend, but this Detroit Lions unit is a better offense with a better quarterback. At some point, good quarterbacks always rebound. I expect to see that from Goff this weekend against a Saints defense without Marshon Lattimore.
Derek Carr – Sit (Projection 15.3 Points)
Derek Carr had a great week last weekend numbers wise, but he too threw a costly interception, which was then returned for a 100 yard touchdown by Falcons safety Jessie Bates.
Carr has been up and down all season this year, and was my primary sell candidate at quarterback this week after putting up good numbers against Atlanta. The Lions secondary is giving up nearly 230 yards a game through the air this season, and typically they’re a favorable matchup for opposition quarterbacks.
That said, Carr’s unit is facing injuries across the board right now. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are currently both on the injury report, and this coming just a week after Michael Thomas was placed on injured reserve.
Olave got a concussion in Sunday’s game, and typically this season players have been ruled out for at least the following weekend before being allowed to return to action. Some have cleared in time, Olave is currently expected to miss the game.
Rashid Shaheed avoided major injury but he too is questionable, so I’m benching Derek Carr in anticipation of a depleted receiving corps against the Lions.
Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos
C.J. Stroud – Start (Projection 19.7 Points)
Denver has started to show up this year, and credit where it’s due, Sean Payton is slowly turning that ship around. The Broncos have now won five straight games, and bullied the Cleveland Browns this past weekend on their way to a 6-5 record.
The Broncos defense has allowed an average of 233 passing yards so far this season, but look at their progress. In the last three games, that average has come down to 183. That includes holding Josh Allen to just 177 passing yards in mid November.
On the flipside, C.J. Stroud has been outstanding and seems to get better every time he takes the field. Even in the game against Arizona, having thrown three picks, Stroud looked elite for most of the game. The turnovers are rare and he’s only thrown picks in three games this year.
Stroud has 10 touchdowns in his last four games and a dangerous deep threat in Tank Dell. I don’t see a reason to bench him this weekend, even against a defense that is getting increasingly stingy in yards allowed. He’s ranked as QB5 this weekend, and he should be starting.
Russell Wilson – Sit (Projection 17.2 Points)
Russell Wilson has been an easy fantasy sit for most of the last two seasons. This week I hesitated, which speaks volumes to the job he and the Broncos are doing to rewrite their own narrative.
Wilson is improving, and managed his first rushing touchdown of the season this past weekend against Cleveland. He’s on the verge of being in the fantasy quarterback conversation, but there just isn’t enough meat on the bones to make it worthwhile yet.
Wilson has thrown one touchdown pass in four of his last six games, and his ceiling is about 200 yards, one touchdown and maybe 25 rushing yards in any given week. There’s better options out there, he’ll stay seated for now.
Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins
Sam Howell – Sit (Projection 17.1 Points)
Sam Howell has earned my respect as the starting quarterback of the Washington Commanders, and I do expect he’ll throw for 275+ yards this weekend against Miami.
The problem I have with Howell is the four interceptions in recent games, and the fact that he’s getting baited by defensive backs. I do believe there’s a risk of multiple interceptions against Miami, particularly with the team likely falling behind and needing to force the ball down the field to catch up.
Jalen Ramsey has elevated the whole Dolphins secondary, and they will play aggressively against Howell on the road. Vic Fangio can apply pressure to a poor offensive line, and the likes of Ramsey, Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard will be on hand to pick off any wayward passes under pressure.
This is a tough call, and I changed my mind on it twice before settling on sitting Sam Howell. I do expect yards, but also expect turnovers.
Tua Tagovailoa – Start (Projection 20.4 Points)
Tua has been the QB13 so far this season, but is ranked QB4 going into the weekend against Washington. There’s a good reason for that. The Commanders had nine sacks against the New York Giants, but the Giants boast easily the worst offensive line in football right now.
In the three other games they’ve played since trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, they’ve had just one sack. Not one sack per game, one sack total.
That’s a problem against this Miami Dolphins offense, and Tua is already one of the fastest QBs getting the football out of his hands so far this year. When you combine the lack of pressure with the inexperienced secondary the Commanders have, and the 300 passing yards per game they’ve allowed in their last three games on average, Tua could have a career day this weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
Jalen Hurts – Start (Projection 21.2 Points)
Jane Hurts’ situation is a strange one this weekend, ranked as a top two QB in fantasy this season, but facing one of the league’s best defenses.
Considering Jalen’s recent form, and the existence of the ‘tush push’, there’s no doubt in starting Hurts every week so far this season.
As a passer, his yardage has been way down in recent weeks. In fact, his highest total in the last three starts was the 207 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys. That said, he has still thrown five touchdown passes in those three games, and added another five rushing touchdowns too.
Hurts now has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, and two in each of his last two games. The 49ers will present more of a challenge than some of the other teams he’s faced more recently, but it’s not enough to stifle one of the most productive fantasy quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy – Start (Projection 18.2 Points)
Brock Purdy had a slightly quieter week this past weekend, throwing for 207 passing yards, one touchdown and one pick against the Philadelphia Eagles.
In his two starts before that, Purdy went for 296 against Jacksonville and 333 against Tampa Bay, throwing three touchdown passes in both games.
Philadelphia have actually been one of the worst defenses against the pass this year, despite their 10-1 record. Their 255 passing yards allowed makes them the fourth worst defense in the league through the air, and facing the most disciplined and methodical offense in football is going to be a problem for them.
This is a huge matchup and a great game for the neutrals. Both QBs should have great fantasy production too.
