Week 1 of the NFL is now wrapped up, and the games gave us a ton to unpack when it comes to fantasy football running backs, their snap shares, and what that might mean for future weeks.
For example, nobody expected to see Kenny Gainwell take all the carries for the Philadelphia Eagles in the season opener, and that usage has put D’Andre Swift’s relevance into serious doubt, picking up just one carry.
We’re going to take a look at some of those situations today, and make our recommendations for four of the NFL’s Week 2 matchups.
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles
Alex Mattison – Sit (Projection 13.6 Points)
I was extremely cautious when it came to Alex Mattison during the off-season, largely choosing to avoid the situation entirely. I believed one of two things, either the Vikings were going to run the ball a lot less and set up in more spread formations, or Mattison was going to struggle to manage the workload and achieve anything more than 3.5 yards per carry.
In Week 1, both were true. The Vikings ran the ball just 14 times, Mattison got 11 of those carries, and averaged 3.1 yards per carry in the process. He doesn’t have much relevance in the passing game, and I’m just not expecting anything close to a fantasy relevant day against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Linebacker Nakobe Dean did go down and will miss several weeks, which leaves the Eagles light at middle linebacker, but it’s still not enough to play Mattison on Thursday Night.
D’Andre Swift – Sit (Projection 8.3 Points)
Yikes. We all know by now that D’Andre Swift’s talents lie outside of the tackles. I didn’t expect to see him pick up many carries running straight up the gut, but seeing as the Eagles went out and traded for him, I thought the game plan would at least involve him on some outside zone runs and pass catching situations.
The result for Swift was one carry for three yards and zero receiving yards. He was as close to zero production as you can get without actually having zero production.
There might be a plan for Swift to get more work in future weeks, in fact I’d expect it, but he’s nowhere near close enough to being playable right now.
Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch in Week 1, which was also a tad strange, meaning that for now it’s Kenny Gainwell for the Eagles. I’d avoid their running back situation entirely for now.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Isiah Pacheco – Sit (Projection 11.9 Points)
Isiah Pacheco felt like a trap in fantasy drafts this year too. You just can’t trust Andy Reid to maintain a game plan from week to week, unless the players involved are named Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. Everybody else is exposed to being worked into the ground one week, and then seeing next to nothing the following week.
While a Hall of Fame coach, Reid is extremely frustrating to try and keep up with in the world of fantasy. He proved it again in Week 1 by giving Pacheco just eight carries, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire got six.
In a game against Doug Pederson, a former assistant of Reid’s, I expect to see heavy passing offenses on both sides of the ball. I’m avoiding Pacheco right now.
Travis Etienne – Start (Projection 14.6 Points)
This one isn’t completely cut and dry either, but I’ll give Etienne the benefit of the doubt here.
Doug Pederson warned us that he’d be running by committee this season, after all, he is a project of Andy Reid’s coaching tree, and he learned a lot of what he knows from the current Chiefs coach.
Drafting Tank Bigsby raised alarm bells, and in Week 1 Bigsby got seven carries including work in the red zone resulting in a touchdown. I’d expect that to be the case all season long, but Etienne still looked strong in the 18 carries he did get, and he’s a strong option for the Jags in the passing game.
Etienne had five catches for 27 yards against the Colts, adding to his 77 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He’s playable against the Chiefs, despite the return of Chris Jones on the defensive line.
Just know that Travis Etienne is always going to come with a slight risk this year. There will be games where his carries are almost level with Bigsby’s, but one would hope that he can dig out some production in the passing game to rebalance that risk, especially in PPR format leagues.
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Christian McCaffrey – Start (Projection 20.7 Points)
Christian McCaffrey has the highest projected points of any running back in football this week, despite facing a stout Rams defense that just shut out the Seattle Seahawks in the second half of their Week 1 matchup.
McCaffrey carried the football a tied league high 22 times in the opener, picking up 152 rushing yards in the process to lead all running backs. Not to mention the potential to add further work as a pass catcher, which we didn’t see much of against the Steelers.
When you look at the way the Niners use him, he’s running into wide open space and often finding the second level before he gets touched, and following the likes of Trent Williams and George Kittle as they block for him downfield makes McCaffrey the easiest smash play every single week this season. If he stays healthy he’s going to win leagues for many of those who drafted him.
Cam Akers – Sit (Projection 10.3 Points)
Cam Akers was the other running back who carried the football 22 times this week, only instead of a 152 yard day, he managed just 29 rushing yards, averaging a woeful 1.3 yards per carry on those touches.
He did find the end zone, which bumped his production slightly, but I’d be worried about the emergence of Kyren Williams here, who had 15 carries of his own and did a lot more with them, totaling 52 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Against the 49ers defense, there’s no way I’m playing Cam Akers after a 1.3 yards per carry day in Week 1. He was one of my sleepers going into this season, but so far a remarkably disappointing start, and it won’t get easier against the Niners.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
Raheem Mostert – Sit (Projection 11.3 Points)
It’s going to be very difficult for me to want to start Raheem Mostert this season. The Miami Dolphins are not going to be running the football a tonne with the current group, and while Mostert got the lion’s share in Week 1, that equated to just 11 carries for 37 yards.
Miami are a pass first offense, and while Mostert gives them a great burst out of the backfield and can pick up a couple of receptions within the offense, he just isn’t going to produce enough on a consistent basis to be playable in fantasy football.
Then add the fact that the Patriots identity this season is going to be largely based around their defense and forcing stops, I don’t like the play here at all.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Start (Projection 14.8 Points)
It was not a pretty outing for the Patriots running backs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Rhamondre Stevensons stock fell when the Pats signed Zeke Elliott to a one year deal, and as expected, he was cutting into Stevenson’s carries right out of the gate.
For a player who was once considered a workhorse back who might get a tonne of reps, Stevenson managed just 12 carries against the Eagles, while Zeke had seven. Rhamondre then only managed 25 yards and a 2.1 yards per carry average, but I’m still starting him this week.
The Miami Dolphins were dreadful in defending the run against the Chargers. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley were gashing the Dolphins defense all afternoon, and the Chargers leant on the run game as a result as opposed to forcing too much out of Justin Herbert.
With those sorts of gaps, Stevenson could have a big bounce back week, and I’m banking on it by starting him against Miami.
