With Week 1 of the NFL season right on our doorstep, it’s time to dive into start and sits for every single NFL matchup.
So, if you’re not sure who you should be starting, and just as importantly who you should be sitting, sit back and relax. We’ve got you covered.
Each week we’ll cover the quarterbacks and wide receivers in part one, and the running backs and tight ends in part two.
Let’s get started.
Quarterbacks
Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions
Patrick Mahomes – Start (Projection 24.5 points)
Because, obviously.
Jared Goff – Start (Projection 17.1 points)
Jared Goff will face a young Kansas City Chiefs secondary, and a defense that is looking increasingly likely to be without star defensive tackle Chris Jones.
Goff threw 4,438 passing yards and 29 touchdowns in 2022 as one of the league’s most consistent high volume passers. Expect to see plenty more 40+ yard passing attempt games from the Detroit QB.
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
Deshaun Watson – Sit (Projection 19.4 Points)
Deshaun Watson looked rusty in 2022, and while he might have spent a complete offseason developing a connection with his offense, I don’t expect to see a big game from him in Week 1. Outside of Amari Cooper the pass catchers are largely unproven, and that could make life difficult for Deshaun early in the season
Joe Burrow – Start (Projection 20.0 Points)
Joe Burrow’s calf strain appears to be on the mend, and the word coming out of the organization is that he’s 100%. He threw for 471 yards and four touchdowns against the Browns in two games last season, and with better protection up front this year, Burrow could have a strong start.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Lamar Jackson – Start (Projection 22.6 Points)
You absolutely need to be starting Lamar this week, and likely every week. With the new look offense and a loaded group of weapons, Lamar should be able to produce in both the passing game and the run game in 2023.
C.J. Stroud – Sit (Projection 14.6 Points)
C.J. Stroud looked a little shaky in the preseason, and while he settled in a little better in later reps, it’s still way too early to start the rookie in your fantasy teams, especially against a defense like Baltimore’s.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
Bryce Young – Sit (Projection 14.6 Points)
There’s no real reason to start the rookie here either, similar to the C.J. Stroud situation.
Desmond Ridder – Sit (Projection 13.6 Points)
I’m far from convinced on Desmond Ridder, and it’ll take a few strong performances before we can start considering him as a potential starter in fantasy. Carolina’s defense is underappreciated, and Ridder won’t have an easy time in Week 1.
San Francisco 49ers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Brock Purdy – Start (Projection 15 Points)
Any concerns with the elbow seem to have vanished with Purdy looking extremely comfortable in the preseason. He seems good to go, so we’re starting him this week against Pittsburgh
Kenny Pickett – Start (Projection 15.0 Points)
Kenny Pickett could be a great value pick for fantasy owners this season, and the group of weapons at his disposal look great. This one might be a slight risk on the road against the Niners, but if Nick Bosa is out, and with an improved offensive line, Pickett could have a fun afternoon with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson.
Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals
Sam Howell – Start (Projection 16.1 Points)
This one might feel like a curveball, but if you are in a deep league or have a need to start Sam Howell, this is a good week to do it.
The Arizona Cardinals are going to go through hell with their roster this year. Sam Howell could come out slinging in Week 1.
Josh Dobbs – Sit (Projection 13.2 Points)
The easiest sit of the week. He’s only been there a matter of days and the Cardinals group of receivers looks mediocre at best this year.
Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints
Ryan Tannehill – Sit (Projection 14.6 Points)
There are just too many unknown factors here to play Tannehill early. We don’t know what the scheme is going to look like or how Deandre Hopkins fits into it, and it’s just better to avoid a potential car crash by leaving him on the bench.
Derek Carr – Start (Projection 16.1 Points)
We could see a revitalized Derek Carr in 2023, and he’s got some real weapons down in New Orleans. The Tennessee Titans secondary is a mix of youth and experience, but Carr could have a big day with Olave, Michael Thomas and the gang on the road in his debut for the black and gold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings
Baker Mayfield – Sit (Projection 15.8 Points)
Baker Mayfield has a ways to go before earning my trust as a potential starter again in the world of fantasy football. Perhaps he can do so this year with the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, but I need to see it first.
Kirk Cousins – Start (Projection 18.4 Points)
Kirk Cousins was good in 2022. You know what you’re going to get with him. The occasional errand throw creeps into his game at least once a week, but he has been throwing at volume in Minnesota, and now has a second top tier weapon in first rounder Jordan Addison to look to if Justin Jefferson is double/triple covered.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence – Start (Projection 19 Points)
I’m expecting a big year from Trevor Lawrence in 2023. In one year with Doug Pederson the improvement from the 2021 season was stunning. He’s in the right hands now, and added Calvin Ridley to the group of pass catchers he’ll be targeting in 2023.
The Colts secondary could be in for a tough day in Week 1 here.
Anthony Richardson – Sit (Projection 18.1 Points)
There will be so many fantasy owners itching to start Anthony Richardson in Week 1 here, but be patient. The Colts have a lot of things to figure out this season if they’re going to be successful, and I want to see AR in Shane Steichen’s offense for a couple of weeks before he becomes a top 10 QB fantasy player worthy of a start.
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers
Tua Tagovailoa – Start (Projection 17.9 Points)
The Miami Dolphins struggled against the L.A. Chargers in 2022, but the man who drew up that defensive set up that stifled Miami is now IN Miami.
Tua and the Dolphins offense will have learned from those errors, and with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle raring and ready to go, it would be tough to bet against a strong day for the Dolphins QB here on the road.
Justin Herbert – Start (Projection 18.9 Points)
Justin Herbert has an opportunity for a big day too, although Renaldo Hill will likely have a tough game plan for the QB he spent last season in the same building as.
Miami are depleted in the secondary with Jalen Ramsey out, and while some of their young corners played really well last year when called upon, Herbert has a fine group of weapons too. I’m expecting fireworks and a lot of points in this one.
L.A. Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
Matt Stafford – Sit (Projection 16.5 Points)
With Cooper Kupp looking increasingly likely to miss the season opener, Matt Staffords pass catching options are looking a little bleak. Van Jefferson offers the most reliable target, but it could be a heavy running day for the Rams as they try to ease themselves into what could be a tough year.
Geno Smith – Start (Projection 19.8 Points)
Who knew we’d be starting Geno Smith in fantasy football leagues in 2023? What a world. Geno has one of the best trios of wide receivers in the league at his disposal this season, with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba making the Seahawks pass catching unit quite a scary sight.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots
Jalen Hurts – Start (Projection 22.3 Points)
The Patriots defense might not make things easy for Jalen Hurts in Week 1, but even with a tough defensive opposition, he is still going to be one of the most productive fantasy quarterbacks this season.
Hurts is an easy start. Every week.
Mac Jones – Sit (Projection 15.3 Points)
Mac Jones was underwhelming last season. Sure, he now has a couple of additional pass catchers, especially with Juju Smith-Schuster, but I haven’t seen anywhere near enough from Mac Jones to start him in my fantasy team.
Against this Eagles defense, this ones a no brainer. Sit Mac.
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Jordan Love – Sit (Projection 15.8 Points)
There is a world in which Jordan Love becomes a viable starter for fantasy players this season, but there’s no need to force it in Week 1. He looked good in the preseason, and if he’s not ready for the moment now he never will be.
With an emphasis on adding pass catchers in the draft, the Packers are young and relatively unknown. We’ll be patient with this one, but it could come good in a few weeks time.
Justin Fields – Start (Projection 19.7 Points)
Justin Fields is an easy start. He was a great fantasy quarterback last season purely because he was such a good runner, and now he has WEAPONS.
Cole Kmet came on mid way through the year last year, Darnell Mooney is healthy and of course, they added DJ Moore. No excuses for Fields this year, he should be taking a big step.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Jimmy Garoppolo – Sit (Projection 15.8 Points)
I’ll avoid the dumpster fire that is the Las Vegas Raiders right now. This QB situation screams desperation, and I don’t know why you’d go from Derek Carr to Jimmy G. It doesn’t improve much, if anything, and has only shaken up the locker room which seems to be a Josh McDaniels special as a head coach. I’m out on this one.
Russell Wilson – Sit (Projection 18.4 Points)
Russell Wilson’s 2022 campaign in Denver was shockingly bad, and I see no reason to trust him in Week 1 in 2023, despite the addition of head coach Sean Payton. I’ll hold fire on Russ until he looks like himself again.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Dak Prescott – Start (Projection 19.0 Points)
Dak has got arguably the best set of weapons he’s had since arriving in Dallas this year. Brandin Cooks is a WR1 now adopting a WR2 role alongside Ceedee Lamb, and Tony Pollard should still produce at a high level as a pass catching back.
Mike McCarthy will be calling the plays this season, and Dak should flourish with high volumes and plenty of touchdowns in 2023. I’m just begging him to limit the turnovers.
Daniel Jones – Sit (Projection 18.7 Points)
Daniel Jones looked great under Brian Daboll in 2022, and got paid in the offseason because of it. In 2023, I’ll start off sitting him. It’s not necessarily his fault, but the Giants don’t exactly have elite level wide receivers, and this is a very good Dallas Cowboys defense.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
Josh Allen – Start (Projection 21.7 Points)
This is not a debate. He’s a top three quarterback, no brainer to start him.
Aaron Rodgers – Start (Projection 16.0 Points)
Rodgers is an easy start too. The talent he has around him in New York is phenomenal, and if it all clicks that roster is going to be a firework show in 2023. You just can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers, making him a clear cut start in fantasy this season.
