Scheme Shift Signals – Which Teams Are Changing Their Identity?

In the NFL, new coaches don’t just bring fresh faces, they bring new playbooks, new tendencies, and big changes to how players are used. A scheme change can completely flip a player’s role, touch count, and fantasy value. Sure, injuries matter, but for fantasy managers, spotting these offensive identity shifts early is gold. Let’s break down five squads making major offensive changes this season and see who’s rising and who’s falling on your draft board.

1. Chicago Bears: From Struggling to Soaring with Johnson

• The Bears hired Lions offensive architect Ben Johnson (HC) and Declan Doyle (OC). Johnson’s Detroit offenses were consistently elite: Top 5 in Points & Yards in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (#1 in Points in ’24). They achieved this with a core philosophy: heavy play-action and diverse personnel, particularly two-TE sets (32.2% in ’24, well above 21.7% league avg).
• Johnson maximized Jared Goff’s efficiency. Goff led the NFL in play-action throw rate (35.7%) in 2024. Rookie Caleb Williams? He ranked 30th (17.4%). The results were stark: Williams’ YPA jumped +2.4 yards and comp% rose +4.1 points on play-action. Johnson’s scheme thrives on creating easy completions and exploiting defenses stretched horizontally by outside zone runs (Detroit used it on 50.1% of rushes, 3rd highest).
• Fantasy Impact:
  • Winners: Winners: D’Andre Swift (RB) is the prime beneficiary. He averaged an elite 5.5 YPC in 2022 under Johnson in Detroit, a stark contrast to his 3.8 YPC last year in Chicago. This scheme is his wheelhouse. Cole Kmet (TE) benefits immensely from heavy 2-TE usage and Johnson’s reliance on the position. Expect a significant target share bump. Caleb Williams (QB) gets the ultimate play-action maestro; his efficiency and fantasy floor/ceiling rise dramatically.
  • Losers: With a second-round pick invested in Luther Burden, the team has a clear top three. However, with Johnson’s offense relying less on 3-WR sets, overall target concentration could increase for the top options and TEs, squeezing out any remaining depth WRs.

2. New Orleans Saints: Moore’s Pace & Precision Takes Over

• Offensive innovator Kellen Moore (HC) takes the reins, bringing QB coach-turned-OC Doug Nussmeier. Moore’s calling card is pace and efficiency. His Saints are projected for 63.3 plays/game, a significant jump from their 60.7 in 2024. Moore adapts his scheme but emphasizes rhythm: “He’s going to get his quarterback completions early… bubbles (screens), the RPOs, the quick throws,” per backup QB Jake Haener.
• Moore tailors his system. In Philly (2024) with Saquon Barkley, he produced a Top 2 rushing attack. With Justin Herbert and a banged-up backfield in LA (2023), his Chargers ranked 3rd in pass attempts. Beat writer Luke Johnson notes Moore’s Saints will feature a “pure progression system” with opportunities for explosives via “higher-percentage throws” compared to last year’s deep-shot heavy approach.
• Fantasy Impact:
  • Winners: Alvin Kamara (RB) is a PPR goldmine in this system. Moore’s emphasis on quick throws and RPOs feeds directly into Kamara’s elite receiving skills. Chris Olave (WR) remains the clear alpha, but the increased pace means more overall opportunities. Rashid Shaheed (WR) could see more schemed touches (screens, jet sweeps) to utilize his speed efficiently. Juwan Johnson (TE) gets a lifeline with his new contract and Moore’s TE-friendly history (see Dalton Schultz in Dallas).
  • Losers: Deep-Threat Dependent WRs. If Moore indeed prioritizes higher-percentage throws over constant deep shots, the value of pure vertical threats takes a hit unless they adapt. The TE depth behind Johnson is already thin (Hill, Moreau on PUP), limiting sleeper appeal. Spencer Rattler’s potential emergence as starter could initially cap the elite upside for pass-catchers compared to a proven veteran, though the system helps.

3. Las Vegas Raiders: Carroll & Kelly Demand Ground & Pound

• This is the most dramatic philosophical U-turn. Out goes the pass-happy approach (2024: 64.3% Pass Rate, 35.7% Run Rate). In comes Pete Carroll (HC) and Chip Kelly (OC). Carroll’s Seahawks consistently ranked among the league’s run-heaviest teams (six top-3 finishes in rush attempts). Kelly, despite past “track team” labels, ran a surprisingly deliberate, run-focused offense at Ohio State (2024: 61.8 plays/gm, 29.4 sec/play). Projections scream balance: 56.2% Pass Rate, 43.8% Run Rate.
• Kelly’s successful Eagles offenses (2013-2015) were actually run-balanced powerhouses: Top 5 in Yards & Points, Top 5 in Rush TDs both years. Carroll’s entire identity is physicality. Drafting RB Ashton Jeanty 6th overall confirms the mission. “We want to be tough, we want to be physical, we want to attack the line of scrimmage,” said QB Geno Smith. The Raiders were dead last in rushing (79.8 YPG) in 2024.
• Fantasy Impact:
  • Winners: Ashton Jeanty (RB) is positioned for a massive workload. Expect bell-cow usage with high carry volume and goal-line work in a scheme designed to feed him. Brock Bowers (TE) becomes even more vital as a blocker and safety valve in a run-centric attack. His YAC ability is perfect for play-action boots. The Offensive Line (especially run blockers) sees value rise in real football, impacting RB success.
  • Losers:  Jakobi Meyers (WR) and Dont’e Thornton (WR). While Thornton flashed in camp, the overall passing volume is set to plummet. Meyers’ target share is threatened by the scheme shift and Brock Bowers’ presence. The departure of former alpha Davante Adams to the Los Angeles Rams means the receiving corps is in flux, with no one likely to replicate his elite target volume.

4. New York Jets: Glenn & Engstrand Bring Back the Run

• Defensive-minded Aaron Glenn (HC) hired Lions disciple Tanner Engstrand (OC). Engstrand’s vision? “We want to play fast. We want to be physical, we want to be aggressive… and detailed.” Glenn immediately praised the three-RB stable (Hall, Allen, Davis), saying they’ll be utilized “as much as possible.” Projections show a massive run rate jump: 47% Run Rate from 36% in 2024.
• Engstrand learned under Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell in Detroit – a run-first, play-action offense built around a mobile QB. With Justin Fields taking over, the Jets are built to mirror this. Fields’ rushing ability alone guarantees a high run rate. Engstrand’s background includes heavy personnel usage and a focus on establishing the run to set up play-action, though he’s a first-time NFL play-caller.
• Fantasy Impact:
  • Winners: Breece Hall (RB) is the undisputed engine. Expect elite volume (carries + receptions) in a scheme designed to maximize his talents. Justin Fields (QB) gets an OC tailor-made for his skills. High designed runs and play-action will boost his rushing floor and efficiency. Garrett Wilson (WR) remains the alpha, but his efficiency could improve with more play-action creating space, even if raw targets dip slightly.
  • Losers: Pass-Catching Depth. The run-heavy focus and lack of proven weapons beyond Wilson severely limit the upside for secondary wide receivers like Malachi Corley and Allen Lazard, and TEs Tyler Conklin/Jeremy Ruckert.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Macdonald & Kubiak Usher in New Era

• New Head Coach Mike Macdonald hired Klint Kubiak as OC, bringing a starkly different philosophy from the pass-leaning Ryan Grubb.
• Kubiak’s scheme is Shanahan/McVay-derived: Wide Zone foundation, heavy play-action, condensed formations, motion. His Saints used heavy personnel (2-TE: 30%, 2-RB: 16%). RT Abe Lucas highlighted the “old-school mentality with a new-school principal.” Preseason showcased this: 170 rushing yards (5.3 YPC), heavy FB usage (Ouzts), and effective play-action.
• Fantasy Impact:

• Winners: Kenneth Walker III (RB) is the focal point. Kubiak’s wide zone scheme is perfect for his vision and burst, and the team will be forced to lean on the run. Zach Charbonnet (RB) remains a valuable handcuff and could see defined power-back/short-yardage work. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) is now the unquestioned alpha receiver, and he should thrive in the slot on play-action crossers and intermediate routes, similar to how Kubiak used Chris Olave. Sam Darnold (QB) gets an efficiency boost from play-action and a run-heavy scheme, providing him with a stable foundation.

• Losers:Pure Deep Threats / Low-Volume WRs. The departures of star wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett leaves a major hole in the passing game. WRs competing for snaps beyond the top 2 (like Jake Bobo, Dareke Young) see limited upside in a lower-volume pass attack. The tight end room, already a question mark after the release of Noah Fant, will likely see a blocking-heavy scheme that limits fantasy upside for any individual player.

Coaching changes can flip a team’s fantasy script overnight. The smart managers spot these scheme shifts before the rest of the league catches on. Track the trends now and draft the winners before your competition does.

FAQ

Q1: How much do scheme changes really affect fantasy?
A: They shift play volume, run/pass rate, play-action usage, and target distribution—often moving players 1–2 draft tiers.

Q2: Which teams project the biggest run-rate jump?
A: Raiders and Jets, with Seahawks close behind.

Q3: Who are the safest “buy” profiles in scheme shifts?
A: RBs in zone-heavy/run-heavy installs (Jeanty, Walker III) and TEs in PA-rich systems (Kmet, Bowers as YAC outlet).

Q4: What’s the Kamara outlook with Moore?
A: High PPR floor via quick game/RPO; rushing efficiency likely up, raw target share may normalize.

Q5: Is Caleb Williams a draft value?
A: Yes—play-action maestro Ben Johnson historically boosts QB efficiency; Williams’ floor/ceiling rise.

Q6: Do I handcuff in these new systems?
A: Yes—priority handcuffs where run rate climbs (SEA, LV, NYJ).