Lucas Musgrave is one of the rawest talents in the 2023 NFL draft. He has started just 13 games at the college level with 47 receptions to his name over the course of four seasons with Oregon State. He is a former three-star recruit who grew up in Oregon and chose to attend Oregon State.
At six-foot-six and 255 pounds, Musgrave is a very intriguing prospect for NFL scouts. He has a tonne of athleticism and some serious potential, but his lack of tape and overall experience at the college level makes for a difficult evaluation.
Musgrave’s biggest numbers came during the 2021 season when he caught 22 balls for 304 yards and one touchdown. One season later he added another 11 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown before a knee injury cut his season short.
The Oregon State tight end tested well at the NFL combine with a 4.61 40-yard dash and an athletic score in the top five at the position.
Musgrave impressed at the Reese’s Senior Bowl clocking in at over 20 mph at his top speed. For a tight end of his size, that’s an outstanding number and it’s that athleticism paired with his superior size that is drawing the attention of pro scouts.
In the two games he played in 2022 Musgrave was flying, with 80+ receiving yards in both of those games against Fresno State and Boise. Had he played the full year there is a chance we could be talking about the young man as a first-round draft pick.
While his numbers don’t rival those of some of the other tight ends in the class, Musgrave’s limited tape does show a lot of promise. He’s a physically imposing talent who towers over those covering him, and is able to stride downfield at speed after the catch.
Musgrave’s 4.61 40-yard dash is decent for his size, but he was expected to run faster, and many believe he is capable of doing so. His straight-line speed jumps off the page, and while he might not be the most agile tight end in the class, he could be a major problem at the next level both up the seam and in the red zone.
He has big hands and a large catch radius, with great length and size at an ideal six-foot-six. All the physical and athletic traits are there, but the question marks come from a lack of tape in other more technical areas.
For starters, there is very little tape with Musgrave facing any sort of press coverage. He doesn’t have a powerful get off and needs to get into his stride to find that speed, so what happens if a defensive back gets hands on him and bumps him at the line of scrimmage? That sort of thing could really affect his timing.
He’s a great straight-line runner but his route running has also been very limited in college, and he hasn’t shown much fluidity in his routes to create separation versus coverage. The majority of his highlight film comes from straight line plays with him running into space.
The tight end class is remarkably deep in the 2023 draft, and there will be other tight ends off the board before Musgrave hears his name called because of their numbers and wealth of experience. That said, the athleticism and potential ceiling for the six-foot-six talent will likely result in his number being dialed at some point on day two or early on day three.
New England Patriots
This feels like a lazy pick but it’s also perhaps the most obvious option for any player at any position in this year’s draft.
The Patriots love tight ends, and yet their current roster doesn’t scream hundreds of yards worth of production. New England have been trying to find the solution post Gronk for years, drafting multiple tight ends and then signing both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to free agency contracts in the same off-season.
Henry is still in town, but Jonnu Smith was traded in this year’s free agency period, with the Patriots then bringing in former Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki on a one year deal. There’s a lack of depth at the position and drafting a rookie seems to make sense with several question marks surrounding Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have found a winning formula in former New York Giants tight end Evan Engram and their franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Both combined last season for 766 receiving yards, a new career high for Engram. However, there isn’t a lot of depth on the Jags roster behind him, and having a rookie who can develop and eventually rep in might be a good option for Jacksonville.
Trevor Lawrence showed a lot of promise last season, and is finally starting to look like he might live up to the sky-high potential he had coming out of college. Surrounding him with pass catching talent and red zone threats in the form of six-foot-six athletic tight ends should be a winning formula.
Pro’s
- Great straight line speed
- Athletic for his size
- Tall for the position
- Strong hands and catch radius
Con’s
- Route running
- Lack of tape/college starts (13)
- Hard to evaluate in situations such as press coverage/inline set up
