Week 1 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Primer: Who to Trust & Who to Bench
Week 1 Start/Sit Primer (NFL)
Every fantasy football season is defined by the critical choices made in Week 1. These early calls don’t just impact a single matchup; they set a psychological tone for the entire year. In 2019, managers who overthought the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defensive reputation benched Sammy Watkins, only to watch in agony as he erupted for 198 yards and three touchdowns, a devastating 42.3-point lesson. That single decision, based on flawed preconceptions rather than current reality, swung countless leagues before the season even truly began. It underscored a vital fantasy tenet: talent + opportunity + matchup = fantasy gold, even when conventional wisdom suggests otherwise.
This article provides the strategic framework to evaluate matchups through the critical lenses of game script, defensive schemes, and volume. The goal is actionable analysis that leads to wins. Let’s break down the key moves for Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Football: Start ’Em Picks
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Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
Atlanta’s defense remains a sieve. Last year, they allowed 19.6 fantasy points per game to QBs and ranked bottom-five in pressure rate. Mayfield isn’t just a fallback option; he’s a strategic weapon in this matchup. He averaged 22.5 points per game in 2024 and posted 23.4 and 24.3 points in two games against Atlanta. With this game indoors and the Falcons’ offense likely to keep it competitive, expect Mayfield to air it out. His connection with Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka will exploit a secondary that can’t contain average arms, let alone a confident Mayfield operating in a perfect indoor environment. Verdict: High-ceiling QB1.
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C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (at LAR)
Stroud’s 2024 was dismal (13.7 PPG), but the Texans retooled: new OC Nick Caley, upgraded offensive line, and additions like Christian Kirk. The Rams allowed 18+ points per game to QBs last year and struggle against efficient, accurate passers. With Joe Mixon out and game script likely favoring aggression, Stroud will push the ball downfield. This is a buy-low opportunity on a player with the pristine pocket pedigree and supporting cast to re-enter the top-10 conversation. Verdict: QB1 streamer with ceiling.
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James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at NO)
Conner is Arizona’s undisputed workhorse. The Saints allowed 24+ points per game to RBs last year and are rebuilding their front seven. With Spencer Rattler starting for New Orleans, the Cardinals should control possession. Conner averaged 15.9 PPG in 2024 and will see 18-22 touches, including goal-line work. The Cardinals’ O-line looked sharp in preseason, creating lanes and sustaining drives. Verdict: Low-end RB1.
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Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (vs. LV)
Stevenson isn’t the sole back anymore, but he’ll handle early-down and goal-line work in Mike Vrabel’s power-running system. The Raiders’ defense is mediocre, and Drake Maye’s mobility will open lanes. Stevenson offers a safe RB2 floor with clear TD upside. Don’t overthink the rookie Henderson’s involvement—Stevenson will dominate early-down touches and is the preferred option at the stripe. Verdict: Flex with RB2 upside.
Week 1 Fantasy Football: SIT ‘EM Picks
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Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (vs. PIT)
Pittsburgh held QBs to 15.5 PPG last year (6th-fewest). T.J. Watt will exploit the Jets’ reshuffled line, and Fields’ tendency to hold the ball leads to sacks and turnovers. The Steelers’ linebackers are disciplined and excel at spying mobile QBs, effectively capping his rushing upside. This is a week to avoid the projected chaos. Verdict: Bench for safer options.
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Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. KC)
Kansas City allowed just 17.3 points per game to QBs in 2024. Herbert’s WR room now features a mix of young talent and a returning veteran. While he lacks a true field-stretcher, the reunion with 33-year-old Keenan Allen will provide a reliable target. Still, the Chiefs’ scheme eliminates explosive plays and will force underneath throws, capping Herbert’s upside. Herbert posted 11.2 and 13.7 points against KC last year. Verdict: Low-floor QB2. Verdict: Low-floor QB2.
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Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (at NYJ)
Johnson may be Pittsburgh’s future, but Mike Tomlin makes rookies earn it. Jaylen Warren will handle early-down work with new addition Kenneth Gainwell (formerly of the Eagles) providing competition. The Jets allowed the 20th-fewest points to RBs last year. This is a projected low-scoring, grind-it-out game script, and Johnson won’t see meaningful volume. Verdict: Stash, don’t start.
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Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks (vs. SF).
After an offseason move to Seattle, Cooper Kupp faces an immediate challenge. He isn’t the Seahawks’ WR1—Jaxon Smith-Njigba is. The 49ers allowed the 7th-fewest points to WRs in 2024. Kupp’s game relies on heavy volume and rhythm, both of which will be disrupted by SF’s elite coverage and pass rush. His floor is terrifyingly low, making him a complete fade. Verdict: WR4/bench.
SURPRISE FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Charbonnet is legitimately challenging Kenneth Walker III. Seattle’s new OC Klint Kubiak loves Charbonnet’s intelligence and availability—he didn’t miss a day of camp while Walker battled injuries. The Seahawks averaged 219 rushing yards per preseason game in Kubiak’s new run-heavy scheme, and Charbonnet shined with 45 yards and a TD on just 5 carries. He is a sneaky flex with RB2 upside if Walker’s foot issue lingers or this becomes a full-blown committee.
TRAP PLAY: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor’s 88.7% snap rate in 2024 is unsustainable for a back with his extensive injury history. His 73.7 PFF rushing grade over the last three years ranks 43rd among qualifying RBs. The Colts drafted D.J. Giddens to consciously reduce Taylor’s load and preserve his health. He’s a declining talent whose value is inflated by name recognition, making him a prime trap at his current ADP.
Week 1 isn’t about big names, it’s about matchups, opportunity, and game script. Start players with positive situations and clear volume (Mayfield, Conner). Sit those facing elite defenses or battling role uncertainty (Fields, Kupp). Surprise flexes like Charbonnet, identified through coaching trends and scheme changes, win weeks. Meanwhile, traps like Taylor, who rely on unsustainable volume, lose them. Your goal is to make the objectively right call based on scheme, script, and situation, not sentiment. Now go win.