How to Predict 2nd Half Breakouts (Devy & Dynasty)
Winning a fantasy championship often comes down to one skill: seeing what’s coming before everyone else. Most managers react to news and box scores. The best ones anticipate them. In Devy and Dynasty leagues, where long-term value matters most, predicting late-season breakouts is the ultimate edge. This isn’t luck, it’s pattern recognition.
This guide breaks it down into three simple keys: usage spikes, situational changes, and scheme fit. Learn to read these signals, and you’ll be able to grab the next breakout star before his value explodes.
The Three Keys to Spotting Breakouts
1. Usage Spikes: Look beyond the box score. A player’s talent can force a coaching staff’s hand, leading to more targets or carries before the production fully follows. This is the earliest signal.
2. Situational Catalysts: Injuries, depth chart changes, coaching shifts, and even soft schedules can create unexpected opportunities. The key is identifying the player best positioned to capitalize.
3. Scheme Alignment: A player’s skills are only as good as the system they’re in. A new coach or coordinator can completely change a player’s trajectory by designing an offense that fits their archetype.
Master these pillars, and you shift from being a reactive manager to a proactive prognosticator.
Devy: Forecasting College Breakouts
College forecasting requires a different lens. With less data available, you must focus on tangible on-field trends and contextual shifts.
The Foundational Metric: In Devy, a player’s future value is revealed through opportunity. A freshman earning significant targets despite veterans on the roster, like Malachi Toney at Miami, is a profound signal. His 12 catches in the first two games weren’t a fluke; they were evidence that his talent was creating his opportunity, not the other way around.
Situational Catalysts: A player’s transfer is often a calculated move to find a better scheme fit. Justice Haynes couldn’t thrive as a “grinder” at Alabama, but his move to Michigan’s run-heavy system positions him for a workhorse role. Similarly, a new offensive coordinator can unlock an entire offense, boosting the value of every skill player within it.
Three Breakout Candidates for 2025
1. Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas
With Texas’s top receivers now in the NFL, Wingo is the presumed WR1. A physical specimen (6’2”, 215 lbs) with elite speed, his connection with Arch Manning and fit in Steve Sarkisian’s pass-friendly scheme makes him a prime candidate for a massive second-half surge.
2. Justice Haynes, RB, Michigan
Haynes’s transfer to Michigan is a perfect marriage of talent and system. Michigan’s offense is built for a physical, between-the-tackles runner like him. Expect his workload to steadily increase as the season progresses, making him a late-season league-winner.
3. Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
Toney’s early volume is the clearest signal. His advanced route-running has already earned him a significant role in a developing offense. As his rapport with the QB grows, his target share will expand, forecasting a major production spike.
Dynasty: Finding NFL Breakouts
NFL forecasting requires a more sophisticated, data-driven approach. The public has all the information; your edge comes from interpreting it correctly.
The Diagnostic Tool: “Coach, I Was Open” (CIWO)
Pro Football Focus’s CIWO metric is a revolutionary tool. It identifies players with a high predicted target share (based on how often they were open) but a low actual target share. This gap signals that a quarterback is missing open receivers. Coaching staffs see this too and will often design plays to funnel targets to that player, making a high CIWO score a leading indicator of a future usage spike.
The Catalyst: How Coaching Changes Unlock Value
A new play-caller can overhaul a player’s value overnight. The Jets hiring OC Tanner Engstrand, who comes from Detroit’s system, is a direct bullish signal for Braelon Allen. Engstrand will look to replicate the successful Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery tandem, and Allen’s bruising style is a perfect fit for the “Montgomery” role.
Three Breakout Candidates for 2025
1. Braelon Allen, RB, NY Jets
Allen is a classic example of a scheme-aligned breakout. His physical running style is exactly what the new offensive coordinator wants. Positive camp reports and a clear path to carries make him a prime candidate to see his role and value explode in the second half.
2. Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
After a disappointing rookie year, Odunze gets a lifeline from new Head Coach Ben Johnson and OC Declan Doyle, who have a proven track record of elevating their top receivers. The new regime has designed a system built on tempo, motion, and a quarterback-friendly scheme that perfectly fits Odunze’s elite talent. With a renewed focus on getting playmakers the ball in space, Odunze is poised to finally shine.
3. Omarion Hampton, RB, LA Chargers
Jim Harbaugh’s arrival signals a return to a run-heavy philosophy, and Hampton is the ideal archetype for a Harbaugh-led ground game. While many analysts predicted he would be a strong backup, Hampton has immediately seized the lead role. In Week 1, he commanded the backfield with 15 carries, far outpacing Najee Harris. He is not a strong bet to see his workload grow; he is already the lead back, positioned for a massive second-half surge as the foundation of this new offense.
The Two Paths to a Breakout
History shows us that breakouts follow one of two patterns: the Narrative Breakout or the Data-Driven Breakout.
The Narrative Breakout: Puka Nacua
Nacua’s breakout was invisible to analytics. His 4.57 40-yard dash time scared off many. But Coach Sean McVay saw a player whose nuanced route-running and understanding of space were a perfect fit for his scheme. This breakout was predicted by trusting a coach’s ability to maximize a specific skill set, not by looking at