Training camp can be overwhelming, preseason flashes grab attention, ADP swings wildly, and headlines flood every feed. But savvy dynasty managers know most of it is just noise. The true contenders separate actionable signals from hype, making calculated moves before rosters lock. Your final tune-up isn’t about chasing every story; it’s about identifying the concrete evidence that predicts value shifts. In this article, we’ll guide you through last year’s lessons, a framework to spot real signals, and this season’s green lights and red flags.

Lesson Learned: Jayden Daniels

Remember Jayden Daniels? Last August, the hype around Jayden Daniels was immense. He was already being drafted as a top-3 quarterback, a testament to his electrifying rookie season. But the real signal for dynasty managers wasn’t his already-high price – it was the specific, consistent reports out of Commanders camp. Beat writers didn’t just say he looked ‘good’; they detailed his obsession with refining pocket presence and footwork. They highlighted immediate, tangible chemistry with new weapon Deebo Samuel, describing precise deep shots hauled in effortlessly. This wasn’t fluff. It was evidence of deliberate development: moving beyond reliance on elite mobility (891 rushing yards as a rookie) to becoming a more complete passer. The Result? Daniels validated his high ADP, finishing as the QB5 overall (PPR) and QB6 in points per game (23.7 PPG). His focus on coachable skills (pocket play, footwork) combined with increased opportunity (new weapons, scheme) created a powerful predictive indicator. This is the blueprint: Identifying Concrete Development in High-Value Assets = Secure & Sustainable Value.

Your Signal-Finding Framework

Before diving into 2025’s flags and lights, sharpen your lens. Cut through the noise with these actionable filters:

1. Specificity Over Vague Praise: “Looking great” is worthless. “Demonstrating significantly improved route crispness against starting CBs” is gold. Focus on what a player is doing differently or excelling at specifically. (Example: Daniels’ pocket footwork).
2. Usage is King: Depth chart movement and snap distribution with starters are paramount. A player consistently running with the 1s, especially over established names, screams coaching trust. Preseason usage with starting QBs is highly revealing. (See: R.J. Harvey, Chase Brown).
3. Actions Trump Words: Ignore coachspeak (“excited about his potential”). Watch what they do: contract extensions, who gets first-team reps, how injuries alter reps. Sean Payton saying he’ll “flip it up” next week after Harvey dominated 1st-team snaps is less important than Harvey getting those snaps initially.
4. Opportunity Knocks (Loudly): Injuries, holdouts, and underperformance create vacuums. Who steps into those 1st-team reps, and how do they perform? A backup shining with the starters due to an injury (especially long-term) is a massive green light. (Example: Emeka Egbuka with Godwin out).
5. Contextualize Draft Capital: A 1st-round rookie struggling early? Usually a yellow flag, not red – teams invest heavily. A 5th-rounder suddenly getting 1st-team reps and excelling? That’s a blazing green light with massive upside potential. (Example: Tory Horton surpassing MVS).
6. Ignore the Fluff: Single highlight plays, vague positivity, overreactions to preseason snaps against backups, and “churning” gossip are distractions. Focus on consistent performance indicators against legitimate competition.

Green Lights: Players to Target NOW (Buy)

1. Emeka Egbuka (WR, TB):
   • Signal: Opportunity + Performance. Chris Godwin’s injury opened the door, and Egbuka has kicked it down. Consistent “rave reviews” throughout OTAs and camp, amplified by specific praise from Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. He’s not just getting reps; he’s seizing the WR2 role vacated by Godwin’s absence. This isn’t just filling in; it’s auditioning for a major, permanent role in a productive offense.
   • Dynasty Action: BUY. His ADP is rising (+33 spots FFPC), but it’s justified. He offers immediate production and long-term WR1/2 potential for the Bucs. Capitalize on any manager still viewing him purely as a rookie. Target him aggressively before Week 1 cements his role.
2. R.J. Harvey (RB, DEN):
   • Signal: Usage + Opportunity. The biggest preseason Week 1 winner. He wasn’t just playing; he was the clear lead back with Bo Nix and the 1st-team offense (63% snap share, 46% route rate), significantly out-snapping J.K. Dobbins (37%). He played 12 of 13 early-down snaps. While Payton hinted at rotation, this initial deployment with the starters, combined with Denver’s significant draft investment (relative to Dobbins), signals a real chance at meaningful touches. The path behind Robinson/Ekeler is clearer than most realize.
   • Dynasty Action: BUY. His ADP is soaring (+47.7 FFPC), but he’s still a late-round flier with legitimate RB3/Flex upside and potential for more. This is the exact type of camp usage bump you exploit. Acquire him before Week 2 usage potentially confirms his role.
3. DeMario Douglas (WR, NE):
   • Signal: Scheme Fit + Camp Performance. “Pop” is essentially free (Round 15+ in startups) but flashing immense value. Beat reporters consistently highlight him as Drake Maye’s top target. Crucially, he fits Josh McDaniels’ slot-heavy scheme perfectly (493 slot snaps in ’24 – 4th most NFL). Elite efficiency metrics last year (2nd in win rate vs. man) combined with specific camp buzz about his connection with Maye and role as the primary slot weapon point to a significant breakout. The presence of Diggs helps, not hinders, by drawing coverage.
   • Dynasty Action: BUY LOW. He’s a screaming value. Acquire him for a future 3rd/4th or as a throw-in. He fits any build – a depth piece for contenders and a potential high-value flip for rebuilders. This is the definition of actionable camp intel on an undervalued asset.

Red Flags: Players to Fade or Sell (Avoid)

1. Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE):
   • Signal: Off-Field + Absence. The red flags are flashing alarmingly bright. Lingering legal issues, failure to sign his contract, and crucially, not practicing with the team during training camp. This isn’t a minor camp ding; it’s a multi-faceted situation threatening his entire rookie season and potentially his standing with the team. Opportunity means nothing if you’re not on the field. His ADP is plummeting (-38 FFPC) for a reason.
   • Dynasty Action: SELL (if possible) or AVOID. The risk vastly outweighs any potential reward right now. If you hold, prepare for a potentially lost season. Do not buy the dip; the bottom may not be in sight.
2. Najee Harris (RB, LAC):
   • Signal: Severe Injury + Opportunity Loss. A fireworks accident causing significant eye damage isn’t your typical training camp injury. Missing critical reps and potentially being less than 100% physically is a major concern. More damning is the rise of Omarion Hampton in his absence. While Greg Roman uses committees, Harris’s injury has directly created a pathway for the rookie to earn significant work. His ADP fall (-28.6 FFPC) reflects the loss of confidence in his workload and immediate impact.
   • Dynasty Action: SELL (if you can get value based on name recognition) or HOLD (if selling low is worse). Do NOT buy. The combination of a scary injury, missed time, and a talented rookie seizing reps is a toxic mix for his 2025 value. His future beyond this season is also clouded.

3. Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC):

• Signal: Unsustainable Production + Increased Competition + Camp Concerns. Johnston’s 2024 success (“uncanny knack for broken-play TDs”) masked underlying issues and looks unsustainable. The Chargers’ offseason additions scream trouble: the return of Keenan Allen and drafting of Tre Harris join Ladd McConkey, creating a crowded WR room in a run-heavy Jim Harbaugh offense. Johnston’s role is murky at best. Camp reports compound the problem: persistent drops, including a concerning described incident where an “accurate ball… ricocheted off his hands” on a key third-down rep. His ADP slide (-24.6 FFPC) reflects plummeting confidence.

• Dynasty Action: SELL or AVOID. He’s a classic “fool’s gold” candidate. Capitalize if any manager is still clinging to his draft pedigree or 2024 TD luck. In this offense and depth chart, he lacks the volume or role security for reliable dynasty value. His camp drops reinforce fundamental concerns.

Execute Your Game Plan

Training camp and preseason aren’t just for players to prepare; they’re your final scouting window. Don’t get swept away by the noise, the viral highlight, the coach’s platitude, the August ADP surge based on fluff.

Your Final Tune-Up Checklist:

1. Re-evaluate Your Rosters: Who has concrete green lights? Who carries red flags? Be ruthless.
2. Leverage the Hype: Sell players whose value is inflated by superficial buzz (especially aging vets or players in bad situations). Buy players where the signal (specific performance, tangible opportunity) is strong but price hasn’t fully caught up.
3. Target Opportunity: Injuries and depth chart shifts create immediate value. Be the first to pounce.
4. Trust the Framework: Apply the Daniels filters – Specific Skill Development + Increased Opportunity = Buy. Vague Hype + Diminishing Role/Health + Negative Context = Sell/Avoid.

The season starts soon, but your most critical moves happen now. Identify the true signals, act decisively on the Green Lights, and steer clear of the Red Flags. Your dynasty championship run begins in August. Coach your team accordingly.

FAQ

Q1: What makes a camp report a true “signal”?
Specificity (what changed), consistent usage with starters, and actions (contracts/reps) that match the talk.

Q2: How much should preseason box scores matter?
They’re secondary to who played with the 1s, when (opening drives), and how they were used.

Q3: What’s the fastest way to spot a buy-low in August?
Starter reps due to injury ahead of them + positive performance with the 1s + reasonable ADP.

Q4: When is a rookie hype dip a buy?
When draft capital is strong and the “concerns” are reps/timing early—not talent or role.

Q5: Which matters more: talent or scheme?
Both—but scheme + opportunity converts talent into points you can bank.

Q6: What do I do with a red-flag player I already roster?
Shop on name value. If the market won’t pay, hold and re-evaluate by Week 2 usage.